411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC 197: Jones vs. Saint Preux

Middleweight Bout: Robert Whittaker vs. Rafael Natal

Jeffrey Harris: Robert Whittaker has been making quite a name for himself and been doing very well since he moved up to middleweight in the UFC. Rafael Natal is a tough opponent who has quietly put together a four-fight winning streak in the UFC. This is a tough fight, and Whittaker cannot be reckless. However, I like what Whittaker brings to the table for this match-up. He’s great at using his speed and angles since he’s no longer having to kill himself to cut weight. Natal is tough and fundamentally sound, but he’s also very beatable, especially where his stand-up is concerned. That’s where I expect Whittaker to have a strong advantage.

Winner: Robert Whittaker, Decision

Robert Winfree: Robert Whittaker’s move to middleweight has proven to be a great one. When he did so I was worried he’d bee to small for the division, but it seems not having to cut as much weight has improved his conditioning, ability to take a punch, and his speed and technique have proven major assets in the new division. Whittaker hasn’t lost at middleweight in the UFC and brings some impressive power and technical striking with him. Whittaker excels at landing clean punches when his opponents don’t expect it, be that angle related or timing/rhythm related, and has solid finishing instincts if he hurts an opponent. Rafael Natal is a tad under appreciated given his tenure and success in the UFC, he has a solid jiu-jitsu game though it’s very top oriented and while his striking isn’t great technically he’s not afraid to strike and has some power. Natal will be looking for takedowns here, I just don’t think Whittaker will be moving forward recklessly enough to let him get a timed double leg or clinch for prolonged periods of time. Natal’s striking defense has long been a liability and that’s not a liability you want against a guy like Whittaker.

Winner: Robert Whittaker, TKO, Round 2

The staff picks Robert Whittaker, 2-0

Lightweight Bout: Anthony Pettis vs. Edson Barboza

Jeffrey Harris: You would think is is the type of fight that a former champion like Anthony Pettis should win. However, I’m angling for the upset in Edson Barboza here. Barboza is very inconsistent. He doesn’t respond well to pressure and aggression. But that’s why I see this is as a strong match-up for Barboza. Barboza does well when he has time to find his rhythm, make adjustments and fight at range. He gets taken out of his comfort zone when opponents go after him and push the pace. I don’t expect Pettis to do that here. In fact, in his recent performances, Pettis has looked very timid. Even when he beat Gilbert Melendez, Melendez had a lot of success against Pettis in the first round. Pettis’ problem is that he just waits too long to settle in. It’s like he’s waiting for his opponents to give him in opening to seize on something. But that hasn’t been happening recently. It led to his losing the title to Rafael dos Anjos. After that, he lost an uneventful fight to Eddie Alvarez. If Pettis fights like that again, I expect another upset here from Barboza.

Winner: Edson Barboza, Decision

Robert Winfree: It’s a little odd to say this, but this is a make or break fight for former lightweight champion Anthony Pettis. Pettis possesses one of the most dynamic skill sets in the sport, he’s active off of his back and at distance his kicks are lethal both to the body and head. Unfortunately Pettis hasn’t evolved lately, he’s content to be held against the fence and while he’s not taken down frequently from that position it’s difficult to say he’s winning when he’s basically asking the referee to separate him from his opponent. This seems like a designated win for Pettis as Edson Barboza isn’t going to try and wrestle him for fifteen minutes. Barboza is a spectacular striker in his own right, and he struggles when pressured though he showed improved movement against Tony Ferguson in the sense that he angled properly and didn’t let Ferguson get him against the fence often but a high pace high volume opponent still tends to get to Barboza. Pettis isn’t that type of fighter, both men prefer to strike at range, both like time to set up their offense and settle into a rhythm. We’re in for a good striking battle with this fight, but I’m torn about picking a winner. Barboza has powerful kicks and good punches but he doesn’t wear damage all that well while Pettis looked very flat and uninspired against Eddie Alvarez. Pettis prefers to fight from the opposite stance of his opponent, this opens up power kicks to the body and will somewhat hamper Barboza’s leg kicks as they’ll have to be aimed at the inside of the lead leg rather than the outside. I’m going with Pettis here but I’m not exactly confident about it and Barboza getting the win wouldn’t be shocking at all.

Winner: Anthony Pettis, Decision

The staff calls it down the middle, 1-1

UFC Flyweight Championship Bout: Demetrious Johnson vs. Henry Cejudo

Jeffrey Harris: I’m glad this fight is happening. Henry Cejudo has earned a shot at Mighty Mouse, but even with all that, I see no reason to pick against Johnson. Cejudo is very well rounded. He has great wrestling and some decent boxing. However, I see no area where he can really surpass Johnson. Johnson has some of the fastest movement in the entire UFC. Johnson’s so efficient and incredible with his movement that he can just completely shut down his opponent’s office and utterly dominate them without ever getting tired for five rounds. Cejudo probably won’t threaten Johnson in terms of knockout power. But Johnson has overcome those type of odds before, like against John Dodson. If anyone can break Anderson Silva’s record of 10 straight title defenses in the UFC, I think Johnson might be the guy to do it.

Winner: Demetrious Johnson, Decision

Robert Winfree: I’m always happy to watch Demetrious Johnson fight, and this is no exception. Johnson is one of the most perfect fighters going, he blends grappling and striking together seamlessly, has endless cardio, and nearly flawless technique. Johnson is a pressure fighter, he’s one of the most aggressive fighters in the sport and his understanding of movement and technique allow him to do so without too much risk of being countered. He made John Dodson miss a lot while easily setting up his own strikes with angles and footwork while Dodson was left scrambling to get away from his pressure. Henry Cejudo is no joke, he’s got incredible wrestling skills and his boxing has been coming along, but this feels like a case of too much too soon. Cejudo will land a few punches here or there most likely, but he’s a forward motion fighter as well and as soon as he starts backing up from Johnson he’s going to be out of his element. We’ve yet to see Cejudo have to fight from his back, but if anyone is going to put him there it’s Johnson and if Cejudo isn’t prepared to defend and regain his feet there Johnson will be able to tap him. Given some of Cejudo’s conditioning issues and Johnson’s pressure I’m actually taking Johnson to finish here.

Winner: Demetrious Johnson, Submission, Round 5

The staff picks Demetrious Johnson, 2-0

Interim UFC Light Heavyweight Championship Bout: Jon Jones vs. Ovince Saint Preux

Jeffrey Harris: MMA is a sport that’s built upon crazy upsets. Stranger things have certainly happened, but I still don’t feel strongly enough to bet on OSP winning an upset here against Jon Jones. Ovince Saint Preux is tough and he’s got knockout power. He has some dangerous skills. The problem is that his takedown defense is terrible, and it’s always been terrible. That’s an area where Jones should eventually have his way with OSP. Jones eventually wins by TKO or by submission.

Winner: Jon Jones, Submission, Round 2

Robert Winfree: Upsets are part of the sport, any sport really though individual sports tend to have a higher instance of it. Jon Jones is probably the greatest fighter the sport has ever seen, and while he’s been out of action for a while it wasn’t injury related so there’s unlikely to be any significant alteration in his abilities for this fight. Jones wont have the same level of height and reach in this fight he does normally but he’ll still keep this fight either at distance where he can pick apart his opponent or fight in the clinch where he’s virtually without peer. Ovince Saint Preux has a massive opportunity here, and he’s got power in his punches plus the ability to throw them at somewhat odd angles but Jones can take a pretty good punch. He’s been hit by guys like Glover Teixeira, Daniel Cormier, and Alexander Gustafsson without ever visibly being hurt by them. Saint Preux has a grappling weakness, and while he’s been working on that I doubt he’ll be able to stop Jon Jones from taking him down and destroying him on the mat. I commend Saint Preux for taking this fight on short notice, but at best he’s got an elevated punchers chance against the greatest fighter on the planet. I see no reason to pick against Jones here.

Winner: Jon Jones, Submission, Round 1

The staff picks Jon Jones, 2-0

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