411’s MMA Roundtable Preview – UFC 196: McGregor vs. Diaz

THE PRELIMINARY CARD:
First three prelims on UFC Fight Pass, rest on Fox Sports 1.
Featherweight Bout: Julian Erosa vs. Teruto Ishihara

Jeffrey Harris: Julian Erosa, Decision
Robert Winfree: Teruto Ishihara, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Erosa, Decision
The staff picks Julian Erosa, 2-1.

Lightweight Bout: Justin Salas vs. Jason Saggo

Jeffrey Harris: Justin Salas, Decision
Robert Winfree: Justin Salas, TKO, Round 2
Dan Plunkett: Saggo, Decision
The staff picks Justin Salas, 2-1.

Lightweight Bout: Diego Sanchez vs. Jim Miller

Jeffrey Harris: Jim Miller, Decision
Robert Winfree: Jim Miller, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Miller, Decision
The staff picks Jim Miller, 3-0.

Featherweight Bout: Darren Elkins vs. Chas Skelly

Jeffrey Harris: Chas Skelly, TKO, Round 1
Robert Winfree: Chas Skelly, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Skelly, Decision
The staff picks Chas Skelly, 3-0.

Middleweight Bout: Vitor Miranda vs. Marcelo Guimaraes

Jeffrey Harris: Vitor Miranda, TKO, Round 2
Robert Winfree: Vitor Miranda, TKO, Round 1
Dan Plunkett: Miranda, TKO, Round 2
The staff picks Vitor Miranda, 3-0.

Welterweight Bout: Erick Silva vs. Nordine Taleb

Jeffrey Harris: Erick Silva, TKO, Round 1
Robert Winfree: Nordine Taleb, Decision
Dan Plunkett: Silva, Decision
The staff picks Erick Silva, 2-1.

Welterweight Bout: Brandon Thatch vs. Siyar Bahadurzada

Jeffrey Harris: Brandon Thatch, Decision
Robert Winfree: Brandon Thatch, TKO, Round 2
Dan Plunkett: Thatch, Decision
The staff picks Brandon Thatch, 3-0.

THE MAIN CARD:
Bantamweight Bout: Amanda Nunes vs. Valentina Shevchenko

Jeffrey Harris: With this fight, Amanda Nunes is in a very good position. She’s finished her last two opponents, including a former title contender in Sara McMann. Not only that, she’s ranked No. 4 in the women’s bantamweight division. With Ronda Rousey’s return not set yet, Nunes could be in a position where she’s in the title mix with another impressive win here. She faces a strong opponent in the tough kickboxer Valentina Shevchenko. She goes into the fight with a 12-1 MMA record, and she was very successful in her Octagon debut, beating Sarah Kaufman by decision. Not to mention, she’s on a five-fight winning streak. A win here would not guarantee her a title shot, but considering that she’s ranked No. 10 now, a win over Nunes would rocket her straight up the rankings. Both women are tough, nasty strikers. However, I believe Nunes will have more of an edge with her grappling and BJJ game here. I expect Nunes to defeat or submit Shevchenko. Either way, this is an important fight to see who will be a potential title contender for the division.

Winner: Amanda Nunes, Submission, Round 2

Robert Winfree: Depending on the return schedule of Ronda Rousey this fight could crown the next title challenger. Balentina Shevchenko scored an upset in her UFC debut when she beat Sarah Kaufman. She’s a multiple time Muay Thai and kickboxing world champion who’s done a good job of adapting those skills into an MMA setting. Her biggest weakness in this fight will be the relentless attack and grappling of Nunes. Nunes only has one loss in the UFC, against Cat Zingano and even then Nunes nearly finished Zingano in the first round before succumbing to strikes in the third. While I have a lot of respect for Shevchenko’s abilities I’m not sure she’s ready for someone of Nunes’ experience and skill level, but this should be an interesting fight.

Winner: Amanda Nunes, Submission, Round 2

Dan Plunkett: Nunes is super dangerous early with a strong top game and power; all of her wins in the past six years have come by first-round stoppage. Past that first round, things get iffy with the gas tank. If Shevchenko survives that early attack, she may very well win. However, Nunes is easily the most dangerous grappler she has ever faced, and that will be a factor.

Winner: Nunes, TKO, Round 1

The staff picks Amanda Nunes, 3-0.

Light Heavyweight Bout: Corey Anderson vs. Tom Lawlor

Jeffrey Harris: Light heavyweight is going through a period in MMA where it’s not as talent-rich as it used to be. In light of that, it’s as good a time as any for “Filthy” Tom Lawlor to try and make a go of it at light heavyweight. He faces the No. 12-ranked Corey Anderson, so this is a fight to potentially push Lawlor up the ranks. After a lengthy layoff, he was very successful against Gian Villante, scoring a knockout win. Anderson is more of a grinding wrestler, but he’s put together a 4-1 record in the UFC. I expect Anderson to extend his winning streak and score another uneventful win over Tom Lawlor here.

Winner: Corey Anderson, Decision

Robert Winfree: Corey Anderson is the only thing approaching a prospect that the light heavyweight division has right now and the UFC really needs him to keep winning. Tom Lawlor moving to light heavyweight seems to have paid off so far as he knocked out Gian Villante his last time out. Lawlor is a solid grappler but he’s been out wrestled before and given the improvements that Anderson has made recently to his game I feel a bit more comfortable picking him here.

Winner: Corey Anderson, Decision

Dan Plunkett: Lawlor may give Anderson a tough go of it. He has a good guillotine choke and packs power on the feet. However, Anderson is younger, faster, and a better wrestler, so it’s tough to pick against him here.

Winner: Anderson, Decision

The staff picks Corey Anderson, 3-0.

Light Heavyweight Bout: Gian Villante vs. Ilir Latifi

Jeffrey Harris: At least with this light heavyweight fight, there’s a lot of potential for an exciting knockout. Both men are knockout power and heavy hands. All four of Latifi’s UFC wins have been finishes, with three coming by way of knockout. Villante getting into striking wars has not always paid off for him. Case in point, his fight against Tom Lawlor. I’m expecting Villante to play it a little safer here to try and get a strategic victory against Latifi.

Winner: Gian Villante, Decision

Robert Winfree: Well this shouldn’t take too long at least. Both Villante and Latifi are generally brawlers with enough power to trouble anyone who brawls with them. Villante has a technical edge but Latifi probably hits harder. I think Villante will fight smart and use Latifi’s aggression and wide punches against him en route to a finish.

Winner: Gian Villante, TKO, Round 1

Dan Plunkett: Both of these guys have power, but Latifi is built like a truck and hits like a wrecking ball. He also has a stronger wrestling background. I give him the edge.

Winner: Latifi, TKO, Round 2

The staff picks Gian Villante, 2-1.

UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship Bout: Holly Holm vs. Miesha Tate

Jeffrey Harris: For me, this is the true main event of UFC 196 and the fight I’m looking forward to the most on Saturday. Styles make fights, and Tate is a high level opponent who has a potential skill set that could give Holm problems. I definitely see ways Tate could have a good night and grind out an ugly and greasy win over Holm. That being said, Holm is a high level boxer, striker and kickboxer. She has shown she had deadly kicks and good takedown defense. That takedown defense will be a big key against a wrestler like Tate. Holm is great at fighting at distance and maintaining her range. I expect that will make this a long night for Tate. Tate might try to initiate some wild exchanges, but I expect she will eat some hard shots from Holm, which will eventually do some heavy damage and get the champion a finish.

Winner: Holly Holm, TKO, Round 4

Robert Winfree: I’m happy that we’re getting a title fight out of Holly Holm here instead of waiting until October or something for Ronda Rousey to get back to fighting. Miesha Tate has some solid MMA wrestling and has proven to have some power in her hands even though her striking technique and defense aren’t anything special, in fact her striking defense is downright poor. Tate will be trying to drag Holm into an ugly close quarters fight where she can use takedowns and brawling in close to negate Holm’s advantages. Holly Holm has a legitimate claim to being the best female sports combatant ever, she won a recognized title in amateur kickboxing, is the most decorated female boxer ever, and now has captured the most prestigious title in MMA. Holm has a better understanding of movement and distance than anyone else in her division. While that was very evident against a relentlessly aggressive fighter like Rousey Tate is unlikely to make the same type of errors, chasing recklessly in straight lines for example. I still don’t think Tate will win, getting Holm down is hard enough and keeping her there is nearly impossible given how strong she is and on the feet Tate at best has a punchers chance but will be at a severe disadvantage given her weak defense. Tate has ways to win this fight, but Holm is a much safer pick and generally a better fighter.

Winner: Holly Holm, TKO, Round 2

Dan Plunkett: I don’t expect this to be like the Rousey fight in that Tate will be more restrained in her attack and thus give Holm fewer opportunities to counter. The big question here is whether Tate can take Holm down consistently. Rousey, who has the best takedowns in the division, was unable to do so, but she was going for takedowns in the clinch whereas Tate will be going for them at a distance. Ultimately, I believe Holm is the better athlete, has strong takedown defense, and is competent from her back. Those will allow her to use her striking toward a victory.

Winner: Holm, Decision

The staff picks Holly Holm, 3-0.

Welterweight Bout: Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz

Jeffrey Harris: To be perfectly honest, I’m not crazy about this fight. At least when Jose Aldo was forced to withdraw from his fight with Conor McGregor the first time last year, a new fight was made between McGregor and Chad Mendes. That was a fight between two high-level featherweight contenders. It was relevant for the division. This is a last-minute replacement that’s basically just a fan-friendly super-fight. From a business standpoint, this fight makes sense. This fight is one that fans can get excited about despite losing the title fight between McGregor and Rafael dos Anjos. So it’s understandable in that respect. Still, it’s being held at welterweight. It just seems like a waste of the Conor McGregor show because his career wasn’t really at the point yet where you just want to put him in fun, moneyweight super-fights. Now the featherweight division is held up for the foreseeable future. Not only that, it looks like a weight McGregor cannot safely make again, no matter what he says. This will be the first time McGregor faces a bigger, longer opponent in Nate Diaz. It’s hard to break down a fight like this because McGregor is moving up two weight classes. Diaz has some underrated boxing skills, and when he’s motivated, he’s very dangerous. I’m going out on a limb, but I’m picking Diaz to win and spoil the Conor McGregor show here. Something just tells me that Diaz is going to score an upset here. If I’m wrong, so be it.

Winner: Nate Diaz, TKO, Round 3

Robert Winfree: I know I’m supposed to care about this fight, but honestly I just don’t. Nate Diaz has a habit of winning fights he isn’t supposed to but he’s also stumbled frequently in big fights, such as his title shot or his rebound against Josh Thomson. Conor McGregor has some bad habits defensively, he tends to rely on his chin and leaves his upper body a bit far forward over his lead leg making avoiding strikes more difficult. Both men are strikers primarily when it comes to the MMA game, McGregor is a bit more diverse with his offense and will have a power advantage but for the first time in his UFC run he’ll be the smaller man in the cage. If Diaz can goad McGregor into fighting stupidly he can win, and Diaz has shown that he can get fighters to fight against their best interests such as the Cerrone or Johnson fights. The biggest liability Diaz has in this fight is his immobility, especially in the footwork area as he’s mostly content to let someone come to him while McGregor tries to create angles to attack from. Both men can win this fight, but all things considered I’m picking McGregor.

Winner: Conor McGregor, TKO, Round 2

Dan Plunkett I’m very interested to see how McGregor will deal with an opponent that not only will have a height and reach advantage, but one that has shown to use those advantages well in the past. I do expect McGregor to win – he has more attacks from the feet and the speed advantage, plus Nate Diaz has turned in some disappointing performances when he’s had bad camps, and here he’s had no camp. There will be interesting points and probably some “bitches” and middle fingers, but I think McGregor takes it.

Winner: McGregor, TKO, Round 3

The staff picks Conor McGregor, 3-0.

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